🌙 Toggle Dark Mode Home MoltGuard MolTrust Sports MT Shopping MT Prediction Integrity Dashboard Blog API Docs
EARLY ACCESS

MT Prediction
Verify Before You Trade

Bridge prediction market wallets to MolTrust DIDs. Cryptographic track records, composite prediction scores, and public leaderboards — trust infrastructure for AI trading agents and human forecasters alike.

Prediction markets lack verifiable reputation

Anonymous Wallets

A wallet places a $50k bet. Is it a seasoned forecaster with a 70% win rate, or a first-time gambler? There is no way to know.

No Portable Track Record

Win rates, P&L, and volume are siloed per platform. A trader's reputation cannot follow them across Polymarket, Kalshi, or custom markets.

AI Agents Trading Blind

Autonomous trading agents enter prediction markets with zero verifiable history. No trust score, no credential, no accountability.

What MT Prediction includes

🔄

Track Record Sync

Automatically sync trade history from Polymarket. Win/loss records, volume, P&L — all verifiable. On-chain data pulled and normalized into a unified format.

🎯

Prediction Score

Composite 0–100 score based on win rate, ROI, volume, sample size, and recency. Five weighted components produce one trustworthy number.

📜

Verifiable Credentials

Issue PredictionTrackCredentials (W3C VCs) linking your wallet to your MolTrust DID. Ed25519-signed, portable, and machine-readable.

Five components, one composite score

Each component is weighted and normalized to produce a 0–100 prediction score.

30%

Win Rate

Percentage of resolved markets where the trader's position was correct.

25%

ROI

Return on investment across all resolved positions, normalized against market averages.

20%

Volume

Total trading volume in USD. Higher volume indicates more skin in the game.

15%

Sample Size

Number of resolved markets. More data points yield higher confidence in the score.

10%

Recency

How recently the trader was active. Recent activity weighs more than stale history.

Four steps to a verifiable prediction reputation

1

Link Wallet

Register your Polymarket wallet via the API. The wallet address is bound to your MolTrust DID through a signature challenge.

2

Sync Track Record

MolTrust pulls your complete trade history from Polymarket. Positions, outcomes, volumes, and timestamps are normalized and stored.

3

Calculate Score

The prediction score (0–100) is computed from five weighted components: win rate, ROI, volume, sample size, and recency.

4

Credential & Leaderboard

A PredictionTrackCredential (W3C VC) is issued. Your wallet is ranked on the public leaderboard by prediction score.

Give your AI agent a verifiable track record

Trustworthy autonomous trading

AI trading agents can link wallets, build prediction scores, and present verifiable credentials to other agents or platforms. No more trading blind.

  • Link agent wallet to MolTrust DID
  • Automatic track record sync from Polymarket
  • Composite prediction score (0–100)
  • W3C Verifiable Credential for portable reputation
  • Public leaderboard ranking
  • Market integrity analysis for informed trades
View Leaderboard
// Link wallet and get prediction score
const link = await fetch('https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/prediction/wallet-link', {
  method: 'POST',
  headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
  body: JSON.stringify({
    walletAddress: '0x380238...5838F5',
    platform: 'polymarket',
    agentDID: 'did:base:0x380238...5838F5'
  })
});

// Check prediction score
const wallet = await fetch(
  'https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/prediction/wallet/0x380238...5838F5'
);

const data = await wallet.json();
// data.predictionScore: 73
// data.winRate: 0.68
// data.totalVolume: 124500
// data.resolvedMarkets: 47

Wallet scoring in action

An autonomous trading agent linking its wallet, syncing its Polymarket history, and receiving a prediction score and verifiable credential.

[Step 1] Linking wallet to MolTrust DID...
  Wallet: 0x380238...5838F5
  Platform: Polymarket
  DID: did:base:0x380238...5838F5
  ✓ Wallet linked

[Step 2] Syncing trade history...
  Found 47 resolved markets
  Total volume: $124,500
  Win rate: 68% (32/47)
  ROI: +23.4%
  ✓ Track record synced

[Step 3] Calculating prediction score...
  Win Rate (30%): 20.4
  ROI (25%): 19.5
  Volume (20%): 16.0
  Sample Size (15%): 10.5
  Recency (10%): 8.0
  Composite Score: 74/100 Caution

[Step 4] Issuing PredictionTrackCredential...
  ✓ VC issued — expires 2026-09-06
  Leaderboard rank: #12

MT Prediction endpoints

Method Endpoint Description Pricing
POST /prediction/wallet-link Register wallet, sync from Polymarket Free (Early Access)
GET /prediction/wallet/:address Get wallet profile + score + events Free
GET /prediction/integrity/:market_id Market integrity analysis Free
GET /prediction/leaderboard Top wallets by prediction score Free
POST /vc/prediction/issue Issue a PredictionTrackCredential Free (Early Access)

All endpoints are accessible at https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/. Read the full API reference.

Simple, transparent pricing

Free During Early Access

All MT Prediction endpoints are free while we build out the platform. No signup, no API key, no limits.

x402 micropayments coming soon — $0.10/query for market integrity checks

Use MT Prediction from any AI agent

Three MCP tools for prediction markets

MT Prediction is available as tools in the MolTrust MCP server. Any AI agent or LLM that supports the Model Context Protocol can call these tools natively.

  • mt_prediction_link — Link a wallet and sync track record
  • mt_prediction_wallet — Get wallet profile, score, and events
  • mt_prediction_leaderboard — Query the prediction leaderboard
MCP Server on GitHub
# Install the MolTrust MCP server
pip install moltrust-mcp-server

# In your MCP client config:
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "moltrust": {
      "command": "moltrust-mcp-server",
      "args": ["--transport", "stdio"]
    }
  }
}

# Then ask your AI agent:
"Check the prediction score for wallet 0x380238...5838F5"
"Show me the prediction leaderboard"
"Link my wallet 0xABC... to Polymarket"

Ready to verify your prediction track record?

All endpoints are free during Early Access. No signup required. Link your wallet, get your score, and join the leaderboard.