MT Prediction Developer Guide: Verify Agent Track Records On-Chain

Prediction markets are increasingly populated by AI agents making autonomous trades. The problem: any agent can claim a good track record. Without cryptographic proof, a 74% accuracy claim is just a number in a database — one that can be edited, faked, or cherry-picked.

MT Prediction solves this by anchoring prediction outcomes on Base mainnet at the time they occur. The result is a credential that any platform can verify independently, without trusting the agent's own reporting.

Step 1: Link a Wallet to a DID

The Wallet-to-DID bridge is the foundation. It creates a cryptographic link between an on-chain address and a W3C DID, making the wallet's transaction history attributable to a specific agent identity.

The POST /guard/prediction/wallet-link endpoint is free. No API key required.

# Link a Polymarket wallet to a MolTrust DID
import requests

response = requests.post(
    "https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/prediction/wallet-link",
    json={
        "wallet_address": "0xYourPolymarketWalletAddress",
        "agent_name": "PredictBot-v2",
        "market_platform": "polymarket"
    }
)

data = response.json()
# Returns: did, wallet_address, link_credential, base_anchor
print(data["did"])
# did:web:api.moltrust.ch:prediction:0xYour...

The response includes a link_credential — a W3C Verifiable Credential proving the wallet-to-DID binding — and a base_anchor with the Base mainnet transaction hash.

Step 2: Check a Wallet's Track Record

Any platform can look up an agent's linked profile and prediction history. The GET /guard/prediction/wallet/:addr endpoint is free and requires no authentication.

# Look up any linked wallet
curl https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/prediction/wallet/0xYourAddress

# Response:
{
  "wallet_address": "0xYour...",
  "did": "did:web:api.moltrust.ch:prediction:0xYour...",
  "agent_name": "PredictBot-v2",
  "predictions_total": 142,
  "accuracy_rate": 0.74,
  "profit_loss_usdc": 2840.50,
  "credential_count": 3,
  "base_anchor": "0xabc123..."
}

The accuracy_rate and profit_loss_usdc fields are derived from on-chain transaction history — not self-reported. A platform integrating MT Prediction can display this data with confidence that it reflects actual outcomes.

Step 3: Issue a PredictionTrackCredential

Once a wallet has accumulated enough prediction history, the agent can pay $2 USDC via the x402 protocol to receive a PredictionTrackCredential — a W3C Verifiable Credential signed with Ed25519 and anchored on Base mainnet.

# Issue a PredictionTrackCredential ($2 USDC via x402)
response = requests.post(
    "https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/vc/prediction/issue",
    headers={
        # x402 payment header — added automatically by x402 client
        "X-Payment": "<x402-payment-proof>"
    },
    json={
        "wallet_address": "0xYourAddress",
        "credential_type": "PredictionTrackCredential"
    }
)

vc = response.json()["credential"]
# vc is a W3C Verifiable Credential (JSON-LD)
# vc["proof"] contains Ed25519 signature
# vc["credentialSubject"]["base_anchor"] = Base tx hash

The issued credential contains the agent's DID, accuracy rate, total predictions, profit/loss, and a cryptographic proof. Because it is anchored on Base mainnet, any verifier can confirm its authenticity without contacting MolTrust.

Check Market Integrity

MT Prediction also exposes a market integrity check. The GET /guard/prediction/integrity/:market_id endpoint analyzes a prediction market for signs of wash trading, coordinated manipulation, or anomalous agent clustering.

# Check a market for manipulation signals
curl https://api.moltrust.ch/guard/prediction/integrity/polymarket-0xMarketId

# Response includes:
{
  "market_id": "polymarket-0x...",
  "integrity_score": 87,
  "risk_level": "LOW",
  "flags": [],
  "verified_participants": 12
}

The 5 Endpoints

MCP Integration

MT Prediction ships with 3 MCP tools, callable by any MCP-compatible AI agent without writing HTTP client code:

# In your MCP client config
{
  "tools": [
    "moltrust_link_prediction_wallet",   // Wallet-to-DID bridge
    "moltrust_get_prediction_profile",   // Track record lookup
    "moltrust_issue_prediction_vc"        // PredictionTrackCredential
  ]
}

The MolTrust MCP Server v0.7.0 includes 33 tools across all 6 verticals. Install via pip: pip install moltrust-mcp-server.

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